POLLWATCH 2013 – Issue #7

5 May, 2013

As the Annual Federal Budget week nears and the 2013 Federal election is some steps closer, it is now possible to gauge the activity of the Left Apologists in the body politic. Coincident with this is the nonsensical rogue polling being done by the Roy Morgan organisation which concluded that for 2 straight weeks in April (those of 15-21 April and 22-28 April), the Labor govts 2PP vote went UP by a percentage point each week to arrive at an improved 45.5%:54.5% trade-off. Spokesman, Gary Morgan, explained that in the two respective weeks, Australian electors were showing “positive” responses to (a) the announcement of a trade deal with China and (b) the so-called Gonski school funding review.

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Mark Kenny (Fairfax Media, 15 April) analysing the latest Fairfax-Nielsen poll gave the lie to the “good news” by singling out the PMs class warfare tactics as the reason for Labor’s primary vote slipping back down to 29% versus the Coalition which has advanced to a primary vote of 49%.

Meanwhile, two more players have entered the field: Clive Palmer and his re-constituted United Australia Party and Greg Barns’ establishing of a Wiki-Leaks Party on Julian Assange’s behalf. Both are sideshows and have yet to record a blip on the radar. But one would think that ALL three mentioned players are wasting their time and money – unless, of course, they are committed to the advance work necessary to build their bases for future electoral-political involvement as are other players in the game e.g. The Republican Party of Australia. Besides, ANY outfit that hired Barns would be chancing it because that man has ONLY a reputation for failure and poor showings.

Stephen Koukoulas in the Business Spectator (27 April) reports that the betting shops are getting more into “exotic” markets – offering odds on the informal vote expected in the House of Representatives Seats results amongst other mischievous markets. For the bookmakers, the game is well and truly over with most of the reputed ones predicting that the Coalition will win something like 101 of the 150 Seats in the Lower House. The PM is already talking like a loser – muttering words like “in the event of a Coalition victory on 14 September…”. However, if the reader is into where to get the best odds, LuxBet is the go – that firm is offering $1.12 odds on The Tone whilst Centrebet will allow die-hard Labor voters $8.25 odds on The Beguiler getting back in.

The remaining mainland state with a Labor govt is South Australia but here – as elsewhere – things just get worse for the trade unions’ party. In furtherance to recent coverage given since the departure of Liberals leader, Isobel Redmond, the SA Liberals appear to be closing in on the Labor “fortress”. Sarah Martin (The Australian, 8 April) reported on the latest polling in the Mediterranean state and found that the Labor Premier there, Jay Weatherill, is under incessant attack by new Liberals leader, Steven Marshall, with the new Opposition Leader taking the conservatives to a healthy interim 2PP lead of 54%:46% in no time flat.

And whilst it was generally believed in the Commentariat that Victoria was still the state stacking up the best for Labor – federally and state-wise – the Victorian state Laborites lost nearly 15% of their primary vote whilst just scraping home in the Lyndhurst state by-election held on Saturday, 27 April. Labor Opposition Leader in Victoria, Daniel Andrews, understated the case when he remarked at the declaring of the poll in previously red-ribbon safe Seat of Lyndhurst that: “Labor has an image problem going in to the next [state] election”. He went on to add: “I think it would be naive if we (i.e. Victorian State Labor) pretended that there were not challenges for Labor in a brand sense”. Annika Smethurst (Herald Sun, 29 April) implied – in reporting of the big swing – that, perhaps, newly-installed Victorian Liberal Premier, Denis Napthine, won’t have to rely on the vote of disgraced former Liberal MLA for Frankston, Geoff Shaw, either before or after the next Victorian State election.

LNP prospects also improved dramatically in the Newspoll conducted in Queensland on the last weekend of March. LNP Premier, Campbell Newman, has somewhat restored the LNPs vote in the Deep North in a convincing 62%:38% 2PP trade-off. A rebound so quickly in the scheme of things in SEQ particularly probably means that federal Labor strategists’ hopes for the protecting of the party’s 8 federal Queensland Seats are absolutely dashed.

Disenchantment in the Left  Media has prompted Ken Wiltshire to come out advocating a Simon Crean-led defection from the Labor Party. Wiltshire (The Australian, 3 April) opined that Crean – along with Chris Bowen, Martin Ferguson and Kim Carr could, to quote him: “do Australia a big favour if they left [the Labor Party] and formed a new party” in a gang of four fashion similar to when, in the UK, Labour moderates of the time: David Owen, Shirley Williams, Roy Jenkins and Bill Rodgers left the British Labour Party to form the Social Democratic Party which eventually morphed in to the Liberal Democrats in the Old Dart. Wiltshire reckoned that Crean & Co “could begin the long overdue realignment of party politics in Australia”.

Bring it ON! Crean could be seeming to drift in that direction…He said – on the record – in the SMH of 13 April that “Labor’s listing…Labor can’t win the 2013 federal election as the party now stands”. Peter Hartcher, writing up the story in which Crean is authoritatively quoted, asserted that Crean was behaving as if there was “nothing to lose”. If this move was ever a likelihood, it won’t or can’t happen until after the shellacking the Labor Party receives in the 2013 general election which might be brought forward to Saturday, 10 August or put back, as the case may be, to Saturday, 30 November. Incidentally, writs for the 2013 poll may be issued as early as Monday, 1 July (see Antony Green’s interpretation of the Commonwealth Electoral Act, as amended, for supporting, informative evaluation of the available options to either the PM or the Opposition Leader, depending on the way things turn out between now and the end of the financial year). Green’s internet blog is easily accessed.

The Liberals are capitalising in every way imaginable at this juncture…their latest television advertising campaign began today, the 5th instant, and it revolves around the ’headless chooks of the Labor govt’. Very funny but very incisive. Evidently, the ‘Labor lemmings/lemons’ television advertising campaign has run its course.

Juicy things are happening ALL over the place. Throsby, based on the industrial City of Wollongong, should be a most interesting Seat to watch on General Election night. Here, an ex-Labor and ex-ACTU member, Paul Matters, is running on an Independent single-issue platform against sitting Labor MHR, Stephen Jones. Fuelling the fire down in the Illawarra, the National Party has recently endorsed Angry Anderson as their candidate for the Seat.

The last paragraph, this time around, shall be taken up with quotable quotes from heavyweight, respected journalists thus:

Phillip Coorey (interpreting JWS Research published in the AFR of 28 March): “Labor faces annihilation in the 24 most marginal Seats – including K-Rudd’s Seat of Griffith”; Michael Koziol (in the SMH of 29 March): “stressing its successes won’t be enough for Labor to convince voters”; Simon Benson (on his blog, 12 April): “there is no safe place for Labor to hide…the problem looming for Labor is larger than it feared…it is vulnerable on just about every flank”; Tim Dodd (in the AFR, 20 April):  “the PM is running out of time to leave her legacy…spending more money without linking it to specific and measurable outcomes, is certainly not the answer” and last but not least, Paul Kelly (in The Australian, 30 March): “the tragedy of the Labor govt is its lack of strategy to govern for ALL…the party faces a crisis of belief and an intellectual failure to fathom how a Labor govt should govern in the 21st Century…Labor has been in denial of these realities for most of the past five and a half years in office”. Whew!  On top of ALL these indirect approvals of an impending change in the Treasury Bench arrangements in Canberra, Simon Crean & Co are giving The Tone free kicks by the number!

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