POLLWATCH 2013 – Issue #5

11 March, 2013
Sunday Telegraph columnist, Miranda Devine, in her “Gillard’s Kicking Own Goals’ article of 3 February had a slant that probably resonated with most other members of The Commentariat when she opined: “You can’t help but think she’s (i.e. the PM) overstrategising every move [she makes]”. Yet, knowing her form, she is likely to so spin her take on the worse than expected rout of her party in the 9 March poll in WA  – a near 9% 2PP vote swing away.

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Labor under Gillard is in dire trouble in Sydney’s West – particularly as the National Times qualitative survey in 10 Seats in that region, published in Fairfax Media on
3 March – shows. It is almost certain that 5 of the 10 (Greenway, Lindsay, Banks, Reid and Parramatta) will be lost to the LNP Coalition on current trends. But certainly, it is not improbable for ALL 10 to tip over. The Seats of Werriwa, McMahon, Fowler, Blaxland and Chifley are eminently loseable. Indeed, Fairfax Media election analyst, Jonathan Swan, had this to say on the NT survey: “Women voters [in these 10 Seats] are turning from Gillard with Tony Abbott closing the so-called ‘gender gap’ in recent months”.  

ReachTel’s automated poll of 2250 voters on 2 March in 4 of the above Western Suburbs Seats – those of Chifley, Blaxland, McMahon and Werriwa – ALL revealed double-digit swings on both the primary and 2PP bases. Again, ALL 4 Seats would be surrendered to the LNP Coalition if a Federal election had been held on that day instead.

The monthly Poll of Polls compilation delivered by psephologist, Andrew  Catsaras, on The Insiders (ABC1) program on 3 March was a little more conservative but still, on average (over 7 polls), the 2PP trade-off in the LNP Coalition’s favour was a hard-and-fast 55%:45%. On the program, panellist George Megalogenis, asserted: “Labor [that is, Federal Labor] is on its own Suicide Watch”.

Not to be outdone, Australian Financial Review reporter, Laura Tingle, personally went out and spoke with Labor Focus Groups in the months of January-February and she is unequivocal in her reading of affairs as they stand: “The rot set in for [Federal] Labor after the last 2 weeks of Federal Parliament in November, 2012 when the AWU/Slater & Gordon/Bruce Wilson affair raised its ugly head again”. Worse for Labor was the conclusive determination by Newspoll in their same 55%:45% 2PP trade-off findings on 26 February that (a) voters won’t change the way they say they’ll vote at the 2013 General election reflecting a cruel (b) “already decided and no longer listening to the PM” collective refrain.

Grace Collier, quoted in The Spectator Diary on 2 March went one further in concluding: “It strikes me as ironic that a prime minister whose primary impairment is lack of trust from the electorate may be soon interviewed by the [Victorian] Fraud Squad over her role in a major crime”! Whew!! In summaries such as Tingle’s and Collier’s, it is decidedly and objectively best  ALL ‘round if the true and honest calls are being made by quality Australian female journalists.

Adding fuel to the proverbial fire, Simon Benson reported in his Daily Telegraph column of 13 February that the Liquor, Hospitality & Miscellaneous Workers’ Union had done their own “secret” polling in Robert McClelland’s Seat of Barton – the one he is not re-contesting – and found there was a likely swing on there in the
St George area of Sydney in the order of 20% on a 2PP trade-off.

Where does it end?

With the best betting odds on the 2013 General election now being with LuxBet: $1.16 for the LNP Coalition versus $6.50 for Labor, the switch is on for the serious political punters to “spice up the odds” and nominate the number of Seats the LNP will win by!

The Federal election strategists of both the 2 major parties – Liberal and Labor – evidently agree/concur that Federal election 2013 will be decided in the 2 Eastern Seaboard States of New South Wales and Queensland.

Very Late Mail: The Liberals are “war-gaming” a joust between The Tone and Bill Shorten. Both are not political “cleanskins” but Shorten would carry the heavier baggage, one would think.

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