POLLWATCH 2013 – Issue #4

25 February, 2013

Before getting in to the ‘nitty-gritty’ of this 4th bulletin in a continuing series I am going to deal with – hopefully ONCE and FOR ALL – the anti-intellectual, almost-entirely hypothetical matter of whether the Federal Labor Party powerbrokers might re-install K-Rudd as Prime Minister; would tip-out the incumbent, Juliar Gillard OR demand that Bill Shorten step up and, as it were, “do one for the team”. My considered view is that the first option won’t occur AT ALL and that the third option would ONLY come about if (a) The PM was finally enmeshed in the still-festering matter of the AWU/Slater & Gordon/Bruce Wilson affair and simply had to resign OR stand aside OR (b) The opinion polls cumulatively revealed Labor’s primary vote slipping below some irrecoverable number  e.g. 19%- 25%. As space is at a premium, I will simply use respected News Limited journalist, Niki Savva’s views on K-Rudd and his chances published on ‘The Punch’ on 22 February: “K-Rudd is both anal and banal and Tony Abbott [pro tem] is rattling his cage like a great white shark in red speedos”. ALL the boosting in the world of the kind Jannette Cotterell, Managing Director of Executive Counsel, employs won’t help him (K-Rudd). Lastly, Radio National ‘Drive’ anchorman and The Age columnist, Waleed Aly, opined on 23 February: “Whether Juliar Gillard should stay or go is really just so much ‘white noise’ ‘cos Labor has lost the plot and it has lost the narrative”. 

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As the week beginning 18 February dawned and the AWU National Conference got under way on the Gold Coast, the first Nielsen nationwide poll findings were published in the Fairfax Media. They would not have made for delightful reading by the AWU delegates assembled. Labor’s nationwide primary vote support had descended to a meagre 30% (27% in New South Wales and more particularly, in the swing Seat of Lindsay: an abominable 20%)…The PM is the AWU’s puppet prime minister and, one would expect that the AWU heavyweights will stick with The Beguiler through thick and thin. And, amongst other reasons, they have a vested interest in her staying.

However, Sportsbet’s spokesman, Ben Hawes, in extrapolating from the figures published in the Nielsen poll and gauging the trends in betting by the punters since the betting shop opened, predicts a Coalition LNP super-win in Federal election 2013 with at least 92 Seats to Labor’s 54 – the odds shortening from $1.35 to $1.15 for The Tone and his Bunch whilst Labor’s odds have blown out to $5.50 (from $3). These are quite huge trend-flows.

I’m not into ANYTHING which even hints at superstition but there is a fair bit of it around at the moment…Alex Telman, a recognised feng shui expert and professional psychic life reader, made his contribution in Brisbane’s Courier-Mail on 22 February. Predicting Labor’s non-chances in Federal election 2013 – he claimed that because of the inner turmoil in Labor’s ranks it is not even worth ANY organisation’s polling in Queensland from here on in.

I presume Alex meant that the body politic could palpably determine the signs for themselves: A House divided…

Following the gains/successes by the conservatives in both the ACT and the NT territorial elections in 2012, Western Australia appears to be a major reflector of the general malaise in Voterland. The Sunday Times in Perth on 24 February published a conclusive Statewide Galaxy poll which predicted an increased majority for Colin Barnett’s Liberals and perhaps the gaining of enough of the 59 Seats in the WA Legislative Assembly to form government for the next 4 years in the Liberals’ own right – not having to coalesce with the renegade WA State Nationals. Labor Opposition Leader, Mark McGowan, has virtually banned the PM from appearing in his State which tells one that he knows which way the wind is blowing. So a more than 10:1 election outspend by Labor [reportedly $1 million: $151,000] would appear to be wasted money ‘cos with a 56%:44% 2PP trade-off, with less than a fortnight to go to the 9 March State poll, even a cool million bucks just wouldn’t hit the proverbial deck! Juliar Gillard = Persona Non Grata in WA as is the case elsewhere!

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