POLLWATCH 2013 – Issue #2

2 February, 2013

Well, the Prime Minister has announced the date of the next Federal election – Saturday, 14 September – and the longest Federal election campaign in Australian political history – seven and a half months – has begun.


In The Republicans’ Campaign Bulletin #43, the multi-pronged reasons for The Beguiler’s desperation move will be explored. However, this is not the time and place for that.

The omens are bleak for the Labor government from the Get-Go: On the last Friday of January the Launceston Examiner regional newspaper in Northern Tasmania engaged the ReachTel polling organisation to survey the Federal Seat of Bass. Now, Bass is considered to be a ‘bellweather’ Seat and we in the Commentariat ALL remember the Bass by-election of 1975 which foretold the inevitable massive defeat of the then-struggling Whitlam Labor government later that year.

Bass, now, this year at the outset of the 2013 Federal election campaign, is reflecting a 60.3% two-party preferred [2PP] vote for the endorsed Liberal candidate: Andrew Nikolic over sitting Labor MHR: Geoff Lyons, on 39.7% based on 2010 lines. Quite flabbergasting, really! 

This very same ReachTel poll determined that the Greens’ voting support is heading South as well – way down to a primary vote of just 8.7% – and that percentage, remember, is built approximately 80% in to the Labor 2PP vote in the Bass Seat!

Then, yesterday, 1st February, the Ipsos Australia write-in, on-line poll of 1000 Australian voters between 25 – 31 January clearly revealed the following: That the Coalition was seen as being more capable than Labor of managing ALL the issues that the voters regard as important, categorically: (a) Immigration = 37:16;
(b) Health & Hospitals = 30:23; (c) Cost of Living = 34:20; (d) Education = 33:25; (e) Law & Order = 39:14 and even on (f) Environment = 24:15…this latter ratio in itself being quite extraordinary.

Ipsos Executive Director, Rebecca Huntley, analysed the poll overall with this telling verdict: “People don’t think Labor deserves a 3rd term; sure, they’re not (yet) switched on to Tony Abbott but they don’t want another minority government and the Greens vote is declining”.

Any fair-minded assessor would believe that The Tone would be happy with that reading.

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