Australia’s Constitutional Future: Opinion Polling
Presented by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine & Julian McCrann
If a Referendum were held today, the result would be the same as the 1999 Republic Referendum that we did have, Australia would remain a constitutional monarchy – and by a clear margin.
At the time of the 1999 Referendum, a majority of Australians (54%) did profess to support a Republic in preference to the Monarchy (38%); however divisions on what type of Republic meant a majority of Australians preferred to stay with a working system of Government rather than vote for an uncertain and ill-defined Republican model. Since the Referendum, Australians have grown increasingly supportive of the Monarchy.
The most recent polling done in May 2011 by the Morgan Poll shows support for the Monarchy is now 55% (up 17% since 1999) compared to support for a Republic at (34%, down 20%) the lowest support for a Republic since the bicentennial in 1988 (29%).
In the present day the Monarchy Republic debate is provocative but irrelevant. Note it is the debate I refer to, not the real issue of whether the Governor-General of Australia should be able to force an election by sacking the Government.
Provocative, stirring, news-grabbing, because it draws on issues of the Queen, England, our history, our roots, etc. – all good stirring stuff.
L-NP (57%) STRONG WINNING LEAD DIPS SLIGHTLY OVER ALP (43%)
Today’s face-to-face Morgan Poll shows strong support for the L-NP 57% (down 1%) compared to the ALP 43% (up 1%) on a Two-Party preferred basis. The L-NP primary vote is 46.5% (down 1.5%), still well ahead of the ALP 35.5% (up 3.5%) — the highest ALP primary support since May.
Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 10% (down 1%) and Others/ Independents 8% (down 1%) according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends, September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2011 — all polling was conducted before this week’s Gillard Government tax forum.
If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would win easily according to today’s Morgan Poll.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen slightly to a still low 96 (up 2.5pts) with only 39.5% (up 0.5%) — saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ while 43.5% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted over the last two weekends, September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2011, was at 108.6 (down 3.2pts from September 17/18, 2011).
Gary Morgan says:
“Despite a small drop in support the L-NP (57%, down 1% since September 10/11 & 17/18) maintains a strong lead over the ALP (43%, up 1%) on a Two-Party preferred basis. Better news for the ALP is the increase in the ALP primary vote to 35.5% (up 3.5%) — the highest ALP primary support since May 2011.
“The slight improvements for the ALP came during a Parliamentary recess during which attention has been focused extensively on the financial and economic problems in Europe which have caused a fall in the Australian Dollar (today at 97.5 US cents) and Australian share markets.
“However, despite the ALP’s improved primary vote, speculation has continued about moves to remove Prime Minister Gillard and bring back former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. However, the Independents who backed Gillard to form Government after last year’s election have made it clear their support rests with Prime Minister Gillard rather than the ALP Government — a clear stumbling block to any push to reinstate Kevin Rudd in the top job.”
Full Tables & Details: http://www.roymorgancom/news/polls/2011/4704
Click for Full Australian Voting Tables & Details
* reprinted with permission courtesy of The Independent Monthly